Insights
By: Graham Wainer
Quarterly Investment Outlook - October 2025
As 2025 enters its final quarter, it has become increasingly evident that activity within the US consumer sector has slowed significantly this year, driven by three key factors. First, the unpredictable imposition of tariffs in the first half of the year created substantial policy uncertainty, prompting businesses to delay both hiring and investment decisions. Second, the excess cash savings accumulated during the pandemic have now largely been depleted.
Whilst these reserves previously supported robust consumer spending, current consumption is increasingly dependent on job creation and income growth, both of which are decelerating. Finally, long-term borrowing costs remain elevated, and this is weighing on housing activity and overall confidence levels.
In this quarter’s edition, we explore how an improving policy mix may be cushioning the economy, even after post-Liberation Day volatility. We also take a deep dive into AI.
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