By: James Newell
The objective of investing offshore
is premised on a number of factors.
Um, we all know that the,
the South African economy contributes nowadays less than
half a percent to world GDP,
just highlighting its global insignificance.
It's also a limited opportunity set when it comes
to technology businesses
that have heavily influenced global markets
and global market returns over the past number of years.
And also exposure to tech enabled industries such
as healthcare, for example, whose defensive qualities have
provided great diversification benefit.
Another factor is exposure to the Rand
and to the South African political risk.
For many investors that have concentrated investments into
businesses and property in South Africa,
investing discretionary assets offshore has been a great way
to diversify that, uh, concentration risk.
In our view, south Africans should diversify all
of their long-term surplus assets offshore.
So that's any assets that are not required
to meet any business needs
or support any local living needs.
One could argue based on a number of qualitative measures
that both South African equity
and bond markets are priced at attractive levels at the
moment, and that with just a few small wins, uh, we,
we could propel growth to higher
and more sustainable levels, which is needed to address some
of the weaknesses in our economy.
And so the challenge then is to determine
is it now a good time
to actually retain South African exposure
and look to externalize at some point in the future?
Our investment processes weren't built around preservation
of wealth, and so we aim to avoid any unnecessary risk
and invest in markets where we have high conviction
of long-term outperformance.
The RAND has historically been a volatile currency,
and one could argue that the trajectory
of currency weakness is likely
to prevail into the future just given the inflation
differentials between South Africa
and some of the other developed markets.
Economies. Even though global markets are not all priced
attractively relative to South Africa,
there are still pockets of exposure
that we are very excited about, uh, future growth prospects.
So for us, a strategy of investing
and diversifying offshore remains as appropriate today
as it has in the past.