What a Trump presidency might mean for UK/US relations
Don’t count on a renewal of vows for the special relationship – Lord Darroch
Photo: Guy Hudson and Lord Darroch at the Sonehage Fleming Family Investment Conference 2024
For those hoping for a new blossoming of the once special relationship between the US and UK, now that now that the US has a new President Elect, don’t hold your breath, according to Lord Darroch, former UK Ambassador to the United States.
A warming of relations?
Despite a few sensible diplomatic moves during Keir Starmer’s early tenure as Prime Minister of the UK, there seems likely to be some difficult moments and contentious issues between the British Government and the new President and his Administration, he told guests at the Stonehage Fleming Family Investment Conference in London last week.
“It was a good thing that Keir Starmer made the effort to go and see Donald Trump while he was last in the States for the UN General Assembly. According to the accounts we've heard, that meeting went quite well,” he said.
Positive too, was Starmer’s “smart move” in calling the then Presidential hopeful, Mr Trump, following the failed assassination attempt on his life. Not to mention his early congratulations to Trump, delivered before Kamala Harris had conceded the morning after the election.
“Although on the surface of it, Keir Starmer has done all the right things, Trump tends to see such moves as his due,” said Lord Darroch. “There was also a casual indifference to the UK in the way that the Republicans made such a fuss about a few Labour supporters knocking on a few doors for Kamala Harris’s campaign trail. And there was a sentence in the press release that the Republican campaign put out, about a “far-left labour party” that will have sent a concerning signal about how they see the Labour Government.”
When it comes to policies, Lord Darroch identified some likely areas of disagreement, if President Trump delivers on his campaign promises. “Ukraine, trade and tariffs and the US leaving the Paris Climate Change deal: the UK and the US are in different places on all of these, and the British government is likely to find itself trying to persuade the US Administration to change its plans. But history suggests that Trump carries through on his promises whatever the international opposition: look at his insistence during his first term on the US leaving the Iran nuclear deal.”
Knock-on effect on UK/Europe relations
For trade in particular, Lord Darroch predicts that the EU will retaliate to any tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leaving the UK’s next move in doubt. “What is the UK going to do on that? Are we going to sit on the side-lines? Are we going to align ourselves with whatever the EU does? Are we going to try and negotiate some special deal? Is it going to push us closer to Europe? There are all sorts of complications around that for the British government. Ultimately, I think we have to be closer to Europe in these circumstances.”
Despite his early diplomatic efforts, Keir Starmer has his work cut out in terms of building a better relationship with the new President, concluded Lord Darroch. “It's not going to be easy. Trump is not a man who changes his mind. If you listen to his pronouncements through the years, he has held firm. He's always been against America being the world's policeman; he's always been critical of the US’s trade deals; he's always said Europe is taking advantage of the US on defence. These views are well, well entrenched. So, I think it's going to be difficult. But the UK government just has to deal with it: play the cards it has been dealt.”