House View January 2021
Published on 14 January 20212021 Investment Outlook: Darkest Before the Dawn
2020 was a defining and historic year, characterised by an unprecedented global health crisis and peacetime policy response.
At the time of writing – in early January 2021 – the pandemic continues to wreak havoc across the world. In the UK, a new virus mutation is driving a sharp acceleration in infections. This variant, and another more infectious mutation in South Africa, has already spread to other regions. Many developed countries are again in national lockdown, subjecting millions of people to tough restrictions on their daily life.
We emphasised early on the pitfalls of market timing in a crisis. As a result, most of our multi-asset portfolios ended the year with competitive positive returns.
The contrast between the current economic freeze and future optimism suggests it is darkest before the dawn. There is a realistic prospect of the pandemic improving over the coming months as the vaccination roll-out accelerates and winter turns to spring in the Northern Hemisphere.
Against the backdrop of a meaningful moderation in the pandemic and reduced geopolitical risks, we identify three key drivers for markets and our investment strategy in 2021, outlined below.
2020 reminded us all how unpredictable the future can be. There are multiple risks that we can identify and evaluate investment strategy against. In particular, the potential for the pandemic to persist for longer than expected despite vaccines and other treatments and also how quickly the global economy can rebound should unemployment benefits be rolled back too soon.
Read our full quarterly investment letter here.
Disclaimer: This article has been prepared for information only. The opinions and views expressed on any third party are for information purposes only, and are subject to change without notice. It is not intended as promotional material, an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy investments or services. We do not intend for this information to constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such to enter into a transaction or for any investment decision. Whilst every effort is made to ensure that the information provided is accurate and up to date, some of the information may be rendered inaccurate in the future due to any changes. © Copyright Stonehage Fleming Investment Management 2020. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission
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I confirm I am accessing the website from the country indicated.
The following web pages contain information on Stonehage Fleming Global Best Ideas equity Fund. This fund is a collective investment schemes (CIS) managed by entities of Stonehage Fleming Investment Management Limited. This fund has not been approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) for distribution in or from Switzerland to Non-Qualified (retail) investors. The information contained in the following pages is only directed to "Qualified Investors" domiciled in Switzerland, in accordance with Article 10 of the Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes of 23 June 2006 ("CISA").
By clicking on the button "I agree" you certify that: 1) you are domiciled in Switzerland 2) you are a ‘Qualified Investor’ in accordance with ‘CISA’. A ‘Qualified Investor’ is defined as:
We have appointed ‘ARM Swiss Representatives SA’ as our Swiss representative for these funds. The paying agent in Switzerland is Banque Heritage S.A. The Prospectus and the Articles, KIIDs and additional documentation including the annual and semi-annual report can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland. Full contact details are contained within the fund documentation.
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Graham Wainer
