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Insights
By: Graham Wainer
The long term remains attractive but investors should stay alert
Markets have bounced back but the scars of Covid will be deep and lasting
Many investors are still heaving a giant sigh of relief, having come out of 2020 not only unscathed but in reasonably good shape. If, in March last year when the market was down 30%, you had offered to take their assets off them at a 15% discount, they would have bitten your hand off. In fact, many ended the year with their losses erased and sizeable gains to boot.
Although not all, much of the pretty remarkable performance of 2020 had more to do with being in the right place at the wrong time. Investors had been buying Amazon, Apple and Netflix for all sorts of valid reasons, but not because they thought there was a pandemic in the offing – one which would exponentialise their earnings. Of course there’s nothing wrong with being lucky and smart but it is hard to repeat. Investors, therefore, would be wise to avoid complacency.
And markets do look a little complacent at this point. They are effectively writing off earnings for 2020 and most of 2021 and looking beyond to a brighter future – a future where things will be okay in the long run, either because of effective vaccines and treatments or because society just finds a way to live with Covid. Add to this historically low interest rates and even distant earnings have real value.
What’s concerning in the meantime is the real economy continuing to be seriously scarred in a number of ways: rising unemployment, increasing levels of corporate debt, delinquencies and bankruptcies, unfathomable levels of public debt and future tax increases. These – for now – are being digested but they will leave deep scars that will eventually come back and bite in ways we have yet to fully understand.
There’s political risk too. Voters are far from pleased with governments’ handling of the pandemic. In Europe especially, this weakens the union even further and opens the door to further fragmentation.
Low interest rates are enabling businesses to refinance themselves more easily than would otherwise have been possible. The result, though, is that businesses that should be are not going bust. While that’s good in the short term, zombie companies are hardly a base for future prosperity. ‘Japan Inc’ is the textbook case and a salutary lesson.
The threat of rising interest rates and inflation is of course is another concern. Ever since the financial crisis, governments have been able to borrow at almost zero rates. Recent rises in bond yields, however, indicate that investors are now rightly worried that a cocktail of stimulus, demand normalisation and contraction in supply will inevitably increase inflation. This would prompt central banks to either raise interest rates, stemming the flow of free money that has buoyed markets for so long or – even worse – not raise rates and undermine their credibility.
Overall, we are in a much better position than we were a year ago. Improved confidence is not unwarranted and there remain tremendous opportunities out there for serious investors with long-term horizons. However, a little caution now until a clearer picture emerges might be just the thing.
Graham Wainer is CEO and Head of Investments at Stonehage Fleming Investment Management. He is also Chairman of the CIO Group.
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All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, for products designed to return income, the distributions can also go down or up and you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. No guarantee or representation is made that the funds will achieve their investment objective. The material on this site does not constitute legal, tax, or advice on investments. If you are unsure about whether a fund meets your requirements, then you should seek professional financial advice before investing.
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All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, for products designed to return income, the distributions can also go down or up and you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. No guarantee or representation is made that the funds will achieve their investment objective. The material on this site does not constitute legal, tax, or advice on investments. If you are unsure about whether a fund meets your requirements, then you should seek professional financial advice before investing.
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All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, for products designed to return income, the distributions can also go down or up and you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. No guarantee or representation is made that the funds will achieve their investment objective. The material on this site does not constitute legal, tax, or advice on investments. If you are unsure about whether a fund meets your requirements, then you should seek professional financial advice before investing.
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1. According to Art. 10 Para. 3 of the Swiss Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act (CISA), Qualified investors are considered: a. Regulated financial intermediaries such as banks, securities dealers, fund management companies as well as asset managers of collective investment schemes, b. Regulated insurance companies, c. Public entities and insurance companies with professional treasury departments, d. Companies with professional treasury departments; e. High net worth individuals, f. Investors who have entered into a written asset management agreement with a supervised financial intermediary (such as banks, securities dealers, fund management companies as well asset managers of collective capital investments).
2. According to Art. 6 Para. 2 of the Swiss Federal Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance (CISO), in particular Art. 10 Para. 4 CISA, qualified investors are also considered: Independent asset managers and investors who have entered into a written asset management. agreement with independent asset managers to the extent that: a. The asset manager as a financial intermediary is subject to the Money Laundering Act (MLA) of 10 October 1997 (Art. 2 Para. 3 lit. e MLA); b. The asset manager is subject to a professional code of conduct which is recognized as a minimum standard by the supervisory authority, and c. The asset management contract contains the recognized guidelines of a professional organization.
3. A high net worth individual is someone who can confirm in writing that they directly or indirectly have net financial investments of at least 2 million Swiss francs. * Financial investments are bank assets (demand or time deposits), fiduciary assets, securities (including collective investment schemes and structured products), derivatives, precious metals as well as life insurances with a replacement value. * Direct investments in real estate and claims from social insurances (including claims from the 2. and 3. Pillar), are not considered financial investments. * The confirmation of financial investments has to be submitted no later than the time the collective investment scheme is offered and distributed. * The advertiser or provider of the collective investment scheme must review the existence of the required financial investments if there are doubts as to whether the person qualifies as a high-net-worth individual. * A written confirmation is not necessary if the required financial investments are deposited at the bank or the securities dealer who is also offering or distributing the collective investment scheme. Private investment vehicles which have been set up for private persons can be treated like high-net-worth individuals as long as they hold net investments of over 2 million Swiss francs.
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All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, for products designed to return income, the distributions can also go down or up and you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. No guarantee or representation is made that the funds will achieve their investment objective. The material on this site does not constitute legal, tax, or advice on investments. If you are unsure about whether a fund meets your requirements, then you should seek professional financial advice before investing.
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All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, for products designed to return income, the distributions can also go down or up and you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. No guarantee or representation is made that the funds will achieve their investment objective. The material on this site does not constitute legal, tax, or advice on investments. If you are unsure about whether a fund meets your requirements, then you should seek professional financial advice before investing. This information is not directed at any US person or any person in the US and the information does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell shares or units in any Stonehage Fleming fund to any US person or to any person in the US.
The following pages contain information on collective investment schemes (both local and foreign) that have been approved by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) for distribution in South Africa, in accordance with the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act, No 45 of 2002 (“CISCA”). The information and materials have been prepared for information purposes only and do not constitute a personal recommendation or advice or a solicitation to buy any product or service. They do not take into account the financial circumstances, needs or objectives of the recipient. In addition to the information provided, you may wish to consult an independent professional adviser.
All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, for products designed to return income, the distributions can also go down or up and you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. No guarantee or representation is made that the funds will achieve their investment objective. The material on this site does not constitute legal, tax, or advice on investments. If you are unsure about whether a fund meets your requirements, then you should seek professional financial advice before investing.
I confirm I am accessing the website from the country indicated.
All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, for products designed to return income, the distributions can also go down or up and you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. No guarantee or representation is made that the funds will achieve their investment objective. The material on this site does not constitute legal, tax, or advice on investments. If you are unsure about whether a fund meets your requirements, then you should seek professional financial advice before investing. This information is not directed at any US person or any person in the US and the information does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell shares or units in any Stonehage Fleming fund to any US person or to any person in the US.
The following pages contain information on collective investment schemes (both local and foreign) that have been approved by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) for distribution in South Africa, in accordance with the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act, No 45 of 2002 (“CISCA”). The information and materials have been prepared for information purposes only and do not constitute a personal recommendation or advice or a solicitation to buy any product or service. They do not take into account the financial circumstances, needs or objectives of the recipient. In addition to the information provided, you may wish to consult an independent professional adviser.
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All investments risk the loss of capital. The value of investments may go down as well as up and, for products designed to return income, the distributions can also go down or up and you may not receive back the full value of your initial investment. No guarantee or representation is made that the funds will achieve their investment objective. The material on this site does not constitute legal, tax, or advice on investments. If you are unsure about whether a fund meets your requirements, then you should seek professional financial advice before investing.
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